Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
The output of eight core sectors jumped by 56.1 per cent in April mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity, official data released on Monday showed. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 37.9 per cent in April 2020 due to lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of coronavirus infection. In March this year, the eight sectors had recorded a growth rate of 11.4 per cent.
Industry insiders in India warn that any such move in the pharmaceutical sector could be counterproductive for the US as it may face increased drug shortages if tariffs are imposed on such imports.
India's manufacturing sector growth started the year 2025 on a strong footing and touched a six-month high in January, fuelled by the steepest upturn in exports in nearly 14 years, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from December's one-year low of 56.4 to 57.7 in January supported by the fastest upturn in new export orders since February 2011.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to 6.7 per cent in February, compared to the same month in 2023, on account of poor performance of some sectors like fertiliser, according to official data released on Thursday. However, the growth rate is higher than January this year.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Led by healthy growth in coal, crude oil, fertilisers, cement and electricity production, output of eight core industries grew to a 13-month high of 18.1 per cent in May this year, according to official data released on Thursday. The growth of core infrastructure sectors expanded by 16.4 per cent in the year-ago period and 9.3 per cent in April this year. The last high growth was recorded in April 2021 when it was 62.6 per cent.
The eight key infrastructure sectors' growth rose by 6.3 per cent in May on healthy expansion in the production of coal, natural gas, and electricity, though the growth rate is lower than in April, according to official data released on Friday. The production of the eight sectors grew 6.7 per cent in April. The growth of these core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 5.2 per cent in May 2023.
India's industrial production growth slowed down for a fourth straight month in December to 0.4 per cent mainly due to a poor performance by the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), contracted by 0.1 per cent in December, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday. In December 2021, the mining output rose by 2.6 per cent, and power generation increased by 2.8 per cent.
The manufacturing sector, which constitute more than 77 per cent of the index, recorded a growth of 5.2 per cent in April, up from 2.9 per cent in the year ago month.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a 15-month low of 3.6 per cent in January, on account of poor performance of sectors like refinery products, fertiliser, steel and electricity, according to the official data released on Thursday. The growth of eight core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 4.9 per cent in December. It was 9.7 per cent in January 2023.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
India's services sector growth touched a four-month high in December, supported by new business inflows on strong demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index, rose from 58.4 in November to 59.3 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion in four months.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
Industrial production surged by 13.6 per cent in June mainly due to a low-base effect and good performance by manufacturing, mining and power sectors but the output remained below the pre-pandemic level. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew by 13 per cent in June this year, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday. The mining sector output rose by 23.1 per cent in June while power generation increased by 8.3 per cent.
India's industrial production growth slowed to 3.8 per cent in January, while the February retail inflation at 5.09 per cent remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone for the sixth straight month, according to the latest government data. Growth in factory output, based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 3.8 per cent in January 2024, mainly due to poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors, according to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a 12-month low in December, as new business orders and production expanded at softer rates, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at 56.4 in December, down from 56.5 in November, indicating a weaker improvement in operating conditions.
Electricity generation has outperformed the industrial production index for five months in a row this financial year, even as the broader economy is struggling to grow.
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
'The pollution has increased. We are facing breathing problems and irritation in the eyes'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in March due to improvement in the output of crude oil, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Tuesday. In 2023-24, the growth rate in the output of these eight sectors was 7.5 per cent, marginally down from 7.8 per cent recorded in the year-ago period.
The production of eight infrastructure sectors rose by 7.5 per cent in October on healthy performance by the segments of coal, natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data released on Tuesday showed. The output of eight core sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 0.5 per cent in October 2020, according to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Core sectors' growth stood at 4.5 per cent in September this year.
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said windfall tax on petroleum products, crude is not ad hoc, but being charged in regular consultation with the industry. Addressing an event organized online, the minister said it is unfair to call windfall tax as ad hoc, because the tax rate and its resetting are done in complete consultations with the industry. "The very idea was implemented after taking the industry into full confidence," she said at a function organised by Elara Capital.
Industrial production declined by 10.4 per cent in July, mainly due to lower output of manufacturing, mining and power generation, as per the government data released on Friday.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded at a four-month high of 7.8 per cent in January 2023 on better show by coal, fertiliser, steel and electricity segments, according to official data released on Tuesday.
Coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
The production growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a six-month low of 7.8 per cent in November due to a decline in the output of crude oil and cement sectors. The growth rate in the production of coal, fertiliser, steel, and electricity also decreased during November this year. According to the data released by the government on Friday, the growth during the month under review, however, is higher than the 5.7 per cent recorded a year ago.
Industrial output maintained its double digit growth for the sixth consecutive month at 13.5 per cent in March, but was lower than expected.
For the April-February period of 2012-13 fiscal, the industrial production growth is at 0.9 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent in the same period of 2011-12, according to official data released on Friday.
The industrial production contracted by 1.2 per cent in February, compared to 9.5 per cent growth a year ago, despite stimulus packages announced by the government.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted for the third month in a row by 1.3 per cent in December 2020, dragged down by poor show by crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel and cement sectors. The core sectors had expanded by 3.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the provisional data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. Barring coal and electricity, all sectors recorded negative growth in December 2020. During April-December 2020-21, the sectors' output declined by 10.1 per cent against a growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
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